Sean's Blog

Leafs Are Embarrassing

Living in Australia, it is hard to be an NHL fan.  Regular TV coverage on Foxtel is terrible, but thankfully Gamcenter from the NHL has made it very easy to watch every game live.  I am taking this opportunity to introduce my six year old to the Leafs and more importantly hockey in general.  Unforunately, he was subjected to Florida Panthers trap on the weekend.

The little fella did really well, he sat through two full periods.  As the Leafs/Panthers were a few minutes in front of the Habs/Rangers game, it let me flip back and also introduce him to Don Cherry and in the second intermission the Hot Stove.  He took it all in, pretty much sat still the entire time and is gaining a better understanding of the finer details of the game, like offsides and icing - things the PA Announcer in hockey mad Miami has to tell the crows about.  

Then a moment of sheer brilliance happened - mid-way through the second period he said to me, "Why are Florida all standing around in the middle?"  Even to a six year old with almost no understanding of the game he could spot the trap and what a nightmare it is.  I tried explaining the defensive strategy behind it and his response was simple, "Florida look slow."

Which turns us over to the Leafs.  They used their team speed to get around the trap fairly effectively.  They used their team speed to create plenty of time on the puck in the offensive zone.  They didn't use either of those things to create good scoring chances.  To me, it all boils down to their unwillingness to drive to the goal and contentment to fire shots from the perimeter with nobody screening the goalie or available to pick up rebounds.  Their best moment of the game came when Colton Orr moved to the slot, took a shot and Jeff Finger broke to the goal and bounced the rebound off the post.

The biggest area of embarrassment for the Leafs though has to be specialty teams.  The umbrella shooting is ridiculous because nobody is creating traffic in front of the goalie and Tomas Kaberle must be paying for his own sticks because he appears fearful of shooting and breaking one.  The Leafs consistently passed themselves into lower percentage shooting spots on their powerplay.  Even Bill Lindsay doing colour commentary for the Panthers asked why they were making low percentage cross ice passes instead of firing it from the point and using their numbers advantage down low.  Phil Kessel is more or less useless out on the hashmarks - he's never going to score from out there.  They've got to get back to basics - two point men staying out high to spread the defenders, one man screening the goalie and two wingers buzzing in and out as appropriate to try and pull a penalty killer out of position to create a higher pecentage shot.  This is coaching - draw it on the whiteboard before practice and spend fifteen minutes working on it and it will improve.

Moving on to the penalty kill and again, Lindsay nailed it - the Leafs may end up being the worst penalty killing team in the history of the NHL since they began keeping these type of statistics.  Again it is coaching.  Blind Freddy can see that the Leafs forwards are playing too deep - they are giving up plenty of point shots and goals are coming off either the players running round or rebounds.  Cory Stillman's goal was the classic example, the point shot was easy as the player had nobody on him, three Leafs were inside the hashmarks and not one took the man standing at the top of the crease who tapped in a shot that banked off the end boards.  Simple stuff, make the powerplay team play outside the box and take low percentage shots OR force them into risky passes  across the ice to find the open man.

I think part of the problem is the Leafs terrible powerplay must practice against their terrible penalty kill.  They seem to be just getting worse and worse.  Ron Wilson MUST get involved and sort this out - just go back to basics, do the easy stuff right before focussing on the complex.

Which leads us to personnel.  I can honestly say, I've never seen a player out of position as much as Francois Beauchamin was against Florida, and for that matter, just about every time I watch the Leafs.  He pinches at the wrong time, he wanders around aimlessly in his own end and he's prone to stupid passes up the middle.  He is proof positive that Scott Neidermeyer is a Hall of Famer - anyone who can make Beauchamin look that good deserves a spot in the Hall.  

Here's a stunning thought - Komisarek and Kaberle are the two best defensemen on the Leafs.  The way Luke Schenn has played the last couple of games, he seems to have gotten the simplicity back in his game and is looking good, so he's number three for me.  That means that at best Beauchamin is your number four and over the course of the year, Ian White has been arguably the best defenseman on the club, so does that not put him ahead on the depth chart meaning Beauchamin is the fifth best defenseman on the third worst team in the league.  Oh dear, Brian Burke - not good at all.

Speaking of Ian White, he was terrible against Florida and teaming him with Luke Schenn is a disaster for the young Schenn.  Ian White gave the puck away on bad passes out of his own end at least a half dozen times.  Then because of his smaller stature, he's unable to physically make up for his mistake by rubbing someone out.  On more than one occasion Schenn had to recover the situation for White, but with a young guy like that, struggling for confidence, making him do extra is a bad recipe.  I've watched White the last few games and his play has been average.

One thing that surprises me is how ordinary many of these Leaf pending free agents have played.  Ponikarovsky just doesn't go to the net like a big man should.  When he does, he tends to score, but watch him in front of goal, he never screens properly, he stays slightly off to the side so that he doesn't get hit with a shot.  Goalies on streaks like Vokoun is in right now eat that up.  There's talk the Leafs will move Stajan and Ponikarovsky pre-deadline, I'd move Ian White too, I think long term he's more of a question than an answer.  I'd re-sign Gustavsson because he's shown glimpses, although his lateral movement on the second goal was brutal, he had two chances to move sideways before the shot came and didn't get over fast enough, but on the three on one he stoned them - he's worth another season with a seasoned backup behind him who could step in if he fails.

Overall, my six year old is getting the same treatment from the Leafs that I got as a kid in the 80's.  The team was so awful that any sign of hope, no matter how small, made the day a bit brighter.  Hopefully the next game he watches doesn't involve Florida and their horrible trap.

Pull the Trigger!

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Ok, Brian Burke - time to step up and pull the trigger.  Ron Wilson's tenure in Toronto most certainly has to be finished now.  Losing to Buffalo 3-2 was bad - made worse by the fact that all three Buffalo goals were on the powerplay further emphasising Wilson's inability to put out an effective unit of penalty killers.  I'm trying not to harp on it, but the Leafs players aren't THAT bad!  They are a bottom six or seven team, but they aren't an expansion team - no team should be so miserable on the penalty kill based on a lack of skill.  It is purely mental now and the coach can't fix it.  It is costing games regularly.  Wilson absolutely must go now - if the Leafs continue to bumble along until after the Olympics and THEN Burke fires Wilson, I would be the first to vote for firing Burke next.  He would simply have not been firing Wilson to allow him to save face running the US Olympic team.

Burke is in all sorts of strife in my books.  If the Leafs finish bottom five and somehow come out with the #1 pick and that goes to Boston, Burke is done.  You would absolutely have to fire him.  Taylor Hall, another first rounder and a second rounder for Phil Kessel is getting fleeced.  I like Kessel and I think he'll be an all-star one day (on merit, not just because each team needs a rep), but Taylor Hall AND two more picks would be a bad deal.

Burke either needs to punt Wilson now and get a new bench staff or bring in some troops to help them out.  Why not bring a guy like Dominic Moore back - he'd cost nothing to acquire I'd bet and he can penalty kill.  He might even bring back some scoring touch to Jason Blake.  Bringing in someone with a scoring touch might not hurt - someone like Jonathan Cheechoo who wouldn't cost alot, has scored in the NHL and is willing to go to the net.

Something has got to give.  While it might be impossible in today's NHL with the salary cap to make big trades, it isn't impossible to shake things up by bringing in a new coach.

Calling Out Ron Wilson!

Yesterday I wrote that Ron Wilson needs to be sacked along with his coaching staff because the team isn't progressing.  I think that's a fair call.  Today I read that Wilson has gone on the practice ice and bagged out Phil Kessel "within earshot" of the media.  This is the same Ron Wilson who gets grumpy whenever the media questions him, yet he's quite willing to throw his 22 year old star player to the wolves.  Wow!

I accept that Kessel isn't scoring.  I accept that he makes millions of dollars. I accept that he's a professional athlete and criticism and media spotlight are part of the job.

HOWEVER!

He's 22! He's still a young man!  He's still learning who he is.  He's moved to the biggest hockey market in the world and become the biggest star on a rubbish team - that's a considerable amount to deal with for anyone, let alone one so young.

Why didn't Wilson call out the pylons he's playing with?  Come on Matt Stajan, lift your game!  Or how about calling himself out for putting Rickard Wallin (zero goals this season) on his line.  What about calling out his boss, Brian Burke for signing Wallin and not getting a true first line centre to play with Kessel.

Wilson is trying to employ backyard psychology, shaming the young man into focusing and lifting his game.  What if Kessel came out and said, "I'm not playing for the US in the Olympics, I want to be traded from Toronto, Ron Wilson has no class."  I think he'd be well within his rights to do that now.  Why not?  If my boss has something to say to me, I sure hope he doesn't do it in front of my staff or colleagues - let alone tell the news media (who wouldn't care).  If Kessel came out and said he didn't appreciate Wilson's diatribe or his style, Burke would be in a pickle - he'd never get his two first rounders back and he'd either have to fire Wilson (and give into a player) or turn the blow torch on his best young player.

It all comes back to something Don Cherry was criticised heavily for saying, "Ron Wilson is a bully."  Like all bullies, he's also a coward.  Rather than admitting that his terrible coaching has lead to an inept penalty killing unit and he's unable to instill disciplined play in his defencemen, he blames Kessel for not scoring.  When you get your ass handed to you by the Flyers 6-2, Kessel could have been the best player on the ice and they still would have lost.  The problem there is, you gave up six goals!

Burke needs to fire Wilson now before he makes things worse.

Leafs not Progressing

I'm a Brian Burke fan.  I like the kind of teams he chooses to ice - they compete, they are tough, they tend to play an open style of the game that's attractive to watch and they more often than not have a bona fide mean streak to them, a real edge.  This Leafs team is a rabble and more and more, Burke's fingerprints are starting to appear at the scene of the crime.

The loss today against Philly was a good indication of what's wrong.  Undisciplined penalties are not to be confused with a mean streak or an edge.  High sticking a guy is not being tough.  Scott Hartnell beatdown Jeff Finger.  Dan Carcillo mocked them after not being able to engage with Colton Orr, who serves no other purpose than to engage the likes of Carcillo.  Exelby did manage to give it to Carcillo and despite his antics, getting your ass whooped in a fight and running around "like a rock star" is still deflating to your team.  However Exelby is what, the Leafs seventh or eighth defenceman on a pretty below average Leafs team is something and he was a Burke acquisition.

The Leafs do not compete at the drop of the puck - you cannot fall behind 2-0 in 22 games out of 43 and expect to make the playoffs.  I think you can look at the players all you like, but the bottom line is the coaching staff are not getting them properly prepared.  I know it is easy to blame the coach, but let's face it there are a few things in hockey that coaches have some influence over: special teams, goals against (team defence) and mental preparedness.  

The Leafs are 14th in the NHL right now on the power play with 18.8% efficiency.  Strangely enough, they finished the year last year in 16th with, 18.8% efficiency.  No improvement there.

On penalty kill, Toronto are 30th with a woeful 70.5%!  They are nearly 6% behind the 29th ranked team Edmonton!  Boston, who are ranked #1 at 87.5% have been shorthanded more than the Leafs (152 to 149) and have given up less than half the same number of goals (19 to 44).  That's just embarrassing.  It gets worse, Toronto were 30th last year with a 74.7% efficiency rating - so they've gone significantly backwards.

They say your primary penalty killer is your goalie, well let's face it, Jonas Gustavsson looks like he'll be a good one and Toskala is slightly better than he was last year, so really, the Leafs have upgraded their primary penalty killer.  

This leads into goals against. The Leafs were the worst in the NHL last year with a 3.49 GAA.  At this point they are 29th with 3.36 GAA - so there is a slight improvement.  I do think if Gustavsson had not had two heart issues and a groin problem, he'd be the clear starter in Toronto and that GAA would be lower, but only marginally.

Which ultimately brings us back to the causes of the problem, mental preparedness.  I don't think anyone would argue that the Leafs defence corps this year on paper looks alot better than last year's.  Yet, Beauchemin and Komisarik are a bit all over the place.  Luke Schenn seems to have traded in for a new pair of cement skates and blinkers.  Kaberle is doing his thing and Ian White has proven he is an NHL defenceman.  So with Beauchemin and Komisarik the issue is one of two things, Brian Burke signed two guys for top four money who aren't really top four or Ron Wilson and staff can't seem to get the best out of them - again, our old friend mental preparedness.  Luke Schenn is baffling, how did he lose his hockey sense over a summer or get slower?  He needs to go to the Marlies and get some seasoning.  

It all comes down to Brian Burke and he's been around long enough that things should be getting better and they are not.  The penalty kill and the falling behind are in my books down to poor coaching.  Killing penalties is about patience and applying pressure.  They routinely end up running around, getting out of position and leaving open men for tap ins.  You can teach NHLers and Wilson for two years has proven incapable of doing that.

So if your theory is to build a young team you need a coach who can teach - clearly, Wilson isn't doing the job.  He's seemingly taught a lightweight offensive player in Nikolai Kulemin to forecheck and backcheck, but really, that's marginal stuff.  Wilson and Burke are friends, but maybe Burke needs to clear the decks behind the bench, including Keith Acton who's been behind the bench as assistant in all five consecutive years of non-playoff hockey.

If Burke doesn't decide to bring in a coach who can get some consistent effort and have the team competing from the opening faceoff for sixty minutes, then we need to look at his recruitment.  None of the college players he's signed seem good enough at this stage to crack one of the worst line-ups in the NHL.  The leading scorer for the Marlies is tough guy, Andre Deveaux - that's not promising.  Christian Hanson looks like he could be a second line player one day is scoring at almost a point per game, but Tyler Bozak has only 4 goals.  Gustavsson in goal looks like he'll become a #1 in the NHL, so full marks to Burke there, but he's a restricted free-agent next season.  The jury is out on Beauchemin and Komisarik - they are just inconsistent.  Colton Orr is doing exactly what Colton Orr was signed for.  Finally, Phil Kessel is in a slump and after tonight's game, Wilson dumped on him to the press without naming him.  I don't think Kessel is the kind of player who can take that kind of heat in the Toronto media at this point in his career.  If the guy takes it the wrong way and shuts the engines down, those two first round picks are going to look pretty expensive, especially if one ends up being Tyler Hall.  

Personally, I think Burke has to can Wilson and his staff now.  I can go into statistics and everything else, but the truth is, the team isn't improving.  Your stud young defenceman is going backwards.  Your star young forward is slumping, playing on a line with third liners at best and the coach dumps on him publicly - and he's promoted Rickard Wallin (of no goals) to the first line to play with him.  Your veteran defencemen who everyone knows are solid players are playing silly undisciplined hockey.  I don't know who you replace the coaching staff with, but its time for them to go.  Toronto fans shouldn't have to wait until after the Olympics (to avoid making Ron Wilson look bad) for Brian Burke to start improving the hockey club right away!

Things are looking up...

Whew!!! It has been a very busy six weeks, whenever I wasn't at work, I tried to avoid computers, so unfortunately blogging fell off the table.  I'll see if I can be a bit more regular.

One thing I have been able to do is catch a few Leaf games on the excellent, NHL Game Center service.  For the most part, they were hopeless, but the last couple of weeks they have been pretty good.  Obviously some of their new blue liners have been formally introduced to one another and have worked out they are on the same team.  Sadly, Luke Schenn seems to have gone backwards and his time has gone backwards whereas Ian White's has increased.  White is a guy who has worked hard and learned his craft, perhaps Schenn is going to have to go through a bit of that as well - oh yeah, he's going to need to work on his foot speed, he gets beat wide too easily.

The other thing that has happened is that Jonas Gustavsson has gotten healthy and Phil Kessel has recovered.  The hit he took in his first game was MASSIVE and he shook it off, so that's a good thing.  Good goaltending and a quick, talented forward sure can make your team defense look much better.  The difference in the NHL between the good and the bad teams is very small and in some ways, these two players returning to the Leafs demonstrates just how small the margin is.

With Vesa Toskala, he lets in one rubbish goal a game.  Conversely, Gustavsson seems to save one sure-fire goal a game.  Phil Kessel took ten shots in his opening game and his first goal, showed the kind of poacher he is, it may have gone in off Blake's shot but Kessel stuffed it in the net to make sure.  Bulging the twine is better than going to the video replay to see if the puck crossed the line.  Most importantly, a guy like Kessel playing 23 minutes a game is probably accountable for one or two minutes a night that you're playing in the other team's end, suddenly you're getting better defensively.

By no means are the Leafs a top ten team right now, but they are probably middle of the pack.  So those two guys coming back from injury is enough to go from the basement in the NHL to the middle of the pack.  Considering how the season started, I think Burke and Wilson will take middle of the pack!

Don't Drink the Sand

As the Commish awaits a ruling from a judge in Arizona it is hard to not draw the parallel to the crazy man in the desert, lost without water, hallucinating and staggering aimlessly. 

The Phoenix Coyotes are dead and no matter what Judge Baum rules, that team will be playing elsewhere this time next season.  The scene on opening night in Phoenix is going to be disturbing - it will be like the "fans" thought it was Halloween and came dressed as empty seats.  The Yotes are in for a blood bath with the NHL underwriting the entire mess.

The best thing that could happen is for Judge Baum to not rule.  The league is paying the bills, the players are getting paid and nobody has the right to an appeal.  If the good judge just waits this thing out, the NHL owners will break and the NHL will be forced to do a deal with the only person in the whole wide world who seems to have any interest in buying this club, Blackberry Jim.  If you figure that the Coyotes have nothing by way of revenue coming in, plus are paying rent to the City of Glendale and the club's payroll is north of $45m with staff and things then between now and April, the owners are going to lose north of $6m per month, maybe more.  The NHL simply doesn't have pockets that deep, so they will have to make a credit call to their other owners.  At some point they are going to blink.

Everyone knows this is about keeping a team out of the Leafs geographic territory unless the Leafs get a fat pay day.  Commish insists no team has a "veto" but Melnyk has already contradicted that - while it might not be in the official rules, the unspoken rules are in play and Melnyk gave the game away.  How long before the other owners who are going to get touched by the Commish for keeping his pet project in the desert alive say, "Enough! Do a deal with the Blackberry guy, get him to cover our losses and move that team to Hamilton!"  I'd say we're talking by mid-November.

So Judge Baum, there's your answer.  You can avoid your ruling being appealed by letting commerce have its way in this dirty little affair.  Just do everyone a favour in the meantime and don't let the Commish drink the sand.

Leafs nab Kessel

Couple of reports out (Rob Longley of the Toronto Sun and Damien Cox of the Toronto Star) have the Leafs acquiring Phil Kessel from Boston.  There seems to be a bit of discrepancy about what went to Boston.  Cox says it was two first rounders and a second rounder and Longley is saying a first rounder and two second rounders.  Cox is also reporting that Kessel has agreed to a 5 year, $27m contract with the Leafs.

I'd like to think that Burke managed to get Kessel for what Longley is reporting, but I think the two first rounders and a second is a bit more likely.  This is a risky deal for the Leafs in two ways:

• Kessel has to come back healthy and the rumours of his introversion had best not be true because the Toronto hockey magnifying glass will fry him; and,
• The Leafs "appear" on paper to be a team that should challenge in the East for the playoffs.  If they have a poor season like last year than Burke has paid a heavy price.

The problem with the Leafs would look to be a lack of goal scoring up front and that terrible penalty killing record from last year had better turn around because the new "more aggressive" Leafs are going to spend more time in the penalty box. 

The question mark around Kessel's health and attitude aside, he now should be entering his prime.  If that turns out to be true, then the Leafs have a ridiculously fast, 40-goals per year first liner for the next five years.  That will go a long way to relieving some of that lack of scoring upfront.  I think he Leafs need Bozak to be the real deal and be able to make the jump this year to the NHL.  If he can chip in 20 goals in his rookie year on the second line, then that would be awesome.  At that point you need Jason Blake, John Mitchell, Matt Stajan and an Alex Ponikarovsky to just have average years by their own standards and that should get you enough goals.  If a Jiri Tlusty, Viktor Stalhberg or Christian Hanson can make the jump this year too, then that's a bonus.  I've left off Kadri because it is hard to believe the Leafs will keep him up, but next year, he might have a good stab.  Also, let's not write off Chris DiDomenico - he will be off skates probably until November and this year is a write off, but longer term, unless his femur doesn't heal well, he's got heaps of potential.

The other thing that's interesting to note about the Leafs is that aside from getting bigger, they got much faster.  Kessel is lightning on skates and Bozak has some serious wheels to go along with a good two way game.  I think being a bit bigger and a bit faster means teams are going to have a little less time to set up shop in the Leafs end and a little more doubt about the consequences of trying.  Throw into that mix just some better guys at the back like Komisarek and Beauchamin and hopefully a still improving Luke Schenn and you suddenly need less goals because you're giving up fewer.

I also think speed and an improved attitude will help the penalty kill.  Nothing throws off the powerplay timing than a quick, fast, reactive box.  When guys are buzzing around the puck carrier, someone will eventually cough it up. 

All up, I think the Leafs have done well - they've given up nothing from their roster to acquire a 36-goal scorer who's only 22 years old.  That's a nice piece of work, Mr. Burke.